In 2022, the Russia-Ukraine conflict disrupted the supply of crude oil and lifted its price ~40% to an average $98 per barrel. The price started easing in the second half as demand-supply mismatches narrowed. However, the volatility that the conflict engendered has had varying impact across the crude oil value chain.
Companies in the exploration and production (E&P) space have seen their profits swell this year, but they have also had to deal with windfall taxes.
Refineries have benefited from high gross refining margins (GRMs), but have also recorded an increase in working capital intensity.
Oil marketing companies saw their margins getting squeezed, with retail fuel prices unchanged.
While crude oil prices have eased further recently, uncertainty prevails as the conflict continues.
Given this, the key questions that arise are on the sensitivity of each of the sub-segments to the expected trend in crude oil prices, impact on profitability, business prospects and resultant credit outlook.
To discuss these, CRISIL is organising a webinar where its experts will present their views on:
E&P: Outlook on production, profitability and capital expenditure
Oilfield equipment and services: Views on revenue visibility and profitability
Oil refining and marketing: Outlook on demand, GRMs and marketing margins
Movement of key debt metrics and credit outlook for these sectors
This will be followed by a panel discussion with industry experts and a Q&A session.
Disclaimer: This event and its content are intellectual property and confidential information of CRISIL. Any use of the same without written permission of CRISIL is illegal and hence punishable. Recording the webinar in any form in full or part or copying, altering, distributing or streaming the webinar is strictly prohibited and violation will attract legal action.
