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September 26, 2024

Rolling on a rough road

Tyre makers hit a rocky patch amid rising prices, tapered supply of natural rubber

Inflated natural rubber pinches

 

Stretched supply and spiralling prices of natural rubber have pushed tyre makers to a tricky turf. The industry has seen costs soar, mounting pressure on profitability, as prices of the commodity surged over 33% on year in just the first five months of fiscal 2025.

The scale of impact on tyre makers can be gauged from the fact that natural rubber accounts for as much as 20-40% of the weight of tyres, depending on the category. Indeed, the tyre industry accounts for around 80% of natural rubber consumption in the country.

Natural rubber prices had hit all-time highs in 2011, breaching the ₹200/kg mark, after recovering from the global financial crisis, aided by accommodative stance of the Fed and other central banks, and logged a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 101% between 2008 and 2011. But, three years of surge in natural rubber prices from the slump of 2008 soon turned into a decade of subdued prices where the average price remained below ₹150/kg.

Since the end of 2023, however, skyrocketing prices — prices have again breached the Rs 200/kg mark amid a raft of challenges — and tight supplies of natural rubber have cast a long shadow on the industry even as steady expansion of the automobile industry and other major consuming industries keeps demand healthy.

The rise, fall and rise in natural rubber prices

 

A deep dive reveals that the current spike in natural rubber prices is different from previous ones. While the earlier spikes were either due to one-time phenomena such as farmers abstaining from harvesting rubber owing to low profitability in 2016 or the labour crisis triggered by systemic shocks such as the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, the increase in prices towards the end of 2023, was caused by something much more fundamental, which is demand surpassing capacity.

In 2011, the natural rubber market had sufficient supply to cater to global demand. Between fiscals 2011 and 2023, however, global natural rubber production grew 35%, while demand for natural rubber expanded 40%. The resultant supply crunch sent prices soaring once again.

An analysis of the supply and demand dynamics over the years throws up valuable insights on the natural rubber market's imbalance.