Key Rating Drivers & Detailed Description
Strengths:
- Strong market position in the microfinance space in eastern India with long-standing presence in Odisha
Annapurna Finance has retained its position of a leading NBFC - MFI in eastern India with strong foothold in Odisha. Impacted by the pandemic outbreak and following lockdown, AFPL’s AUM grew at 19.6% over fiscal 2021 to Rs 4,793 crore as against a growth of 36% registered for the preceding year. The company has been able to scale the business in terms of size as well as operational presence, and while doing so, it has maintained the operational parameters and infrastructure at comfortable levels. In fiscal 2019, the company started extending MSME loans and that portfolio formed ~14% of the gross AUM as on March 31, 2021. In the medium to long term, AFPL plans to transfer this MSME portfolio to a new subsidiary which is under formation and is yet to receive an RBI license. Over Q1 2022, the AUM declined by 3% on account of restricted field movement and lockdown following the second wave. Thereafter, as public activity has resumed, disbursements have started picking up and growth is expected to revive in the latter half of fiscal 2022. The company operates across 19 states through a network of over 950 branches spread across 330 districts.
- Capitalisation is adequate in relation to the scale of operations; ability to sustain its capital position by raising the intended quantum of capital remains critical
Annapurna Finance's capital position is adequate with a tangible networth of Rs 993 crore as on June 30, 2021. Over fiscal 2019, the company had raised Rs 155 crore as compulsorily convertible preference shares in the first quarter, and another round of Rs 137 crore in the last quarter of the year. Driven by this addition to networth, the company's adjusted gearing has reduced and stood at 5.8 times as of March 31, 2020, as compared to 8.9 times as on March 31, 2018. Subsequently, the company raised another round of Rs 228 crore as CCPS in fiscal 2021 which led to a further reduction in gearing to 5.4 times as on March 31, 2021.
Given the idiosyncratic risks inherent in the sector, the company intends to maintain its adjusted gearing at 5.5-6 times and tier I CAR at above 20% - on a steady state basis, which is in line with CRISIL's expectation. In order to uphold this stance alongside prevailing asset quality challenges and medium term growth plans, the company is in the process of raising Rs 300 crore as CCPS in the current calendar (2021) year as well.
The company has marquee investors like Asian Development Bank (ADB, holds 12.8% stake in the company) who have demonstrated track record of extending support, if need be. Furthermore, the terms of ADB's equity investment allow Annapurna Finance to avail further equity of around USD 10 million. For the company to maintain its capitalisation metrics at stated levels amidst heightened credit losses in the aftermath of the Covid-19 outbreak, CRISIL Ratings believes Annapurna Finance will be required to raise additional capital in the near to medium term. In this regard, the company's strong articulation on its intent to raise about Rs 300 crore of equity capital by end of calendar year 2021, has been centrally factored into the rating.
- Sound risk management practices
Annapurna Finance has also strengthened its risk management practice in the last few years. The company has established an in-house geo information system to facilitate early identification of any potential issues across geographies. This not only enables the company to monitor asset quality performance in its existing regions but also assists in identification of newer regions with high growth potential and low risk. The model of lending through self-help groups, along with sound ground level and internal audit processes have also helped Annapurna Finance to maintain strong asset quality performance in its core geographies of Odisha and Chhattisgarh over the years in the pre-Covid scenario. However, considering the rapid growth in loan portfolio and significant expansion into newer geographies in the past few years, and prevailing challenges due to the pandemic, asset quality performance in newer geographies remains a key monitorable.
Weaknesses:
- Moderation in asset quality in the aftermath of the pandemic
Asset quality performance of Annapurna Finance had remained broadly stable after deteriorating post demonetization. During that time, socio-political issues in the Vidarbha region of Maharashtra and adjoining regions of Madhya Pradesh fueled the ground level problems. Over the last 2-3 years, barring few instances of floods, cyclones, operational issues in some of the north eastern states, the company’s delinquencies have remained comfortable. However, since the outbreak of pandemic in March 2020, slippages have increased leading to elevated GNPAs. On March 31, 2021, Annapurna Finance reported a GNPA of 6.6% whereas NNPA stood at 2.8%. Following the pandemic second wave, monthly collection efficiency declined from 97% to 80% between March to May 2021 however, as the lockdown restrictions were relaxed – collections also improved to 95% in June and 91% in July 2021. As on July 31, 2021, 90+ stood at 6.4%. The company had a restructured portfolio of Rs 308 crore as on July 31, 2021 – all of which was restructured in fiscal 2021. As part of this scheme, the company has offered to either defer the repayments by 4-5 months (moratorium), reduce the EMI to 50% or, exempt the interest component of the EMI to be paid by its borrowers.
As the ground level situation remains volatile with some states witnessing a rise in Covid infections, the pace and magnitude of improvement in collection efficiency to pre-pandemic levels and its consequent impact on profitability, will be a key monitorable.
- Regional concentration of operations in Odisha
Annapurna Finance's portfolio is geographically concentrated within Odisha which accounts for close to 31% of the total AUM as on June 30, 2021, although this exposure has declined from 50% levels observed in fiscal 2015. Top 3 states (Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Odisha) account for 59% of the AUM as on the same date. In terms of districts, the top five districts - accounting for 14% of the portfolio, are all located in Odisha and most of them are adjacent to each other. In a situation where ground-level issues erupt in any single district or the region is hit by a natural calamity, the probability of spill over is high and this could impact the adjoining districts as well. Taking this into cognizance, the management is taking focused effort to improve geographical diversity and reduce the exposure to a single state to below 30% over the medium term. Additionally, they have put limits on branch and district exposure linked to the networth of the company.
- Moderate profitability with elevated credit losses in the aftermath of Covid-19 outbreak
Earnings profile, after remaining subdued over fiscal 2018 due to demonetization related credit costs, had started to recover. From a net profit of Rs 10 crore and a RoMA of 0.5% for fiscal 2018, the company’s net profit and RoMA for fiscal 2020 increased to Rs 83 crore and 1.8% respectively. However, following the pandemic outbreak and its impact on asset quality, credit costs for fiscal 2021 increased to 3.2% after remaining ~1% previously, in the normal course of business. Resultantly, RoMA for fiscal 2021 was muted at 0.03%. For the first quarter of fiscal 2022 as well, higher interest reversals on NPAs and elevated credit costs yielded a RoMA of 0.2% (annualized) for the quarter.
With the expectation of slow revival in collections for the sector to pre-Covid levels, the company is at a risk of bearing elevated credit losses for a longer stretch of time in fiscal 2022, which would result in earnings remaining muted for the period. Its ability maintain strong operational profitability and curtail incremental slippages so as to restore overall profitability remains critical.
- Inherently modest credit profile of the borrowers
A significant portion of the portfolio comprises microfinance loans to clients with below-average credit risk profiles and lack of access to formal credit. Typical borrowers are cattle owners, vegetable vendors, tailors, tea shop owners, provision store owners, and small fabrication units. The income flow of these households could be volatile and dependent on the local economy. With the slowdown in economic activity after the lockdown, there was pressure on such borrowers’ cash flows at the household level in the immediate aftermath, thereby restricting the repayment capability of these borrowers. However, since more than 80% of the company’s borrower base is in rural areas wherein the impact of the pandemic and lockdown has been lower, the restoration in their occupational activities has been encouraging. Even though collections have started to revive from July 2021 onwards, the restoration to pre-pandemic level is some distance away, and the ability of Annapurna Finance to reinstate repayment discipline among its customers will be a monitorable.
- Potential risk from local socio-political issues in the microfinance sector
The microfinance sector has witnessed two major disruptive events in the past decade. The first was the crisis promulgated by the ordinance passed by the Government of Andhra Pradesh in 2010 and the second was demonetisation in 2016. In addition, the sector has faced issues of varying intensity in several geographies. Promulgation of the ordinance on MFIs by the Government of Andhra Pradesh in 2010 demonstrated their vulnerability to regulatory and legislative risks. The ordinance triggered a chain of events that adversely affected the business models of MFIs by impairing their growth, asset quality, profitability, and solvency. Similarly, the sector witnessed high level of delinquencies post-demonetisation and the subsequent socio-political events. For Annapurna Finance, while the impact of demonetisation was relatively lesser as compared to other peers, it did witness marginal uptick in early bucket delinquencies as a consequence of the issues in Odisha and regional disturbance in pockets of Assam. This indicates the fragility of the business model against external risks. As the business involves lending to the poor and downtrodden sections of the society, MFIs will remain exposed to socially sensitive factors, including charging of high interest rates, and consequently, tighter regulations and legislation.