Rating Rationale
June 04, 2019 | Mumbai
Coastal Gujarat Power Limited
Rating outlook revised to 'Positive'; ratings reaffirmed
 
Rating Action
Total Bank Loan Facilities Rated Rs.6764.2 Crore
Long Term Rating CRISIL AA-(SO)/Positive (Outlook revised from 'Stable' and rating reaffirmed)
Long Term Rating CRISIL A-/Positive (Outlook revised from 'Stable' and rating reaffirmed)
Short Term Rating CRISIL A1+(SO) (Reaffirmed)
 
Rs. 500 Crore Commercial Paper* CRISIL A1+(SO) (Reaffirmed)
1 crore = 10 million
Refer to annexure for Details of Instruments & Bank Facilitie
*Guaranteed by Tata Power
Detailed Rationale

CRISIL has revised its outlook on the long-term bank facilities of Coastal Gujarat Power Limited (CGPL) to 'Positive' from 'Stable'. The rating on the long-term bank facilities of Rs 50 crore is reaffirmed at 'CRISIL AA-(SO)' as it is backed by an unconditional and irrevocable guarantee from CGPL's parent, The Tata Power Company Limited (Tata Power, rated 'CRISIL AA-/Positive/CRISIL A1+'). The rating on the long-term bank facilities of Rs 3,864.2 crore has been reaffirmed at 'CRISIL A-'. The rating on the short-term bank facilities backed by an unconditional and irrevocable guarantee from Tata Power, has been reaffirmed at 'CRISIL A1+ (SO)'.

The outlook revision reflects an expectation of improvement in CGPL's credit risk profile on potential implementation of the High Power Committee (HPC) recommendations.

In October 2018, HPC recommended sharing the losses incurred in CGPL between consumers, lenders, and developers. The HPC's key recommendations include i) pass through of fuel costs subject to a cap of USD 110/tonne; (ii) lenders sacrifice a fixed deduction of 20 paise per kilowatt hour (p/kWh); (iii) Tata Power share 100% of profits from Indonesian mines subject to a floor of 15p/kWh; and; (iv) increase the normative plant availability factor to 90% (from current 80%) for the same capacity charges.

Post the HPC recommendation, in January 2019, Supreme Court ruled that power purchase agreements (PPAs) could be amended with power distribution companies (discoms) subject to Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC)'s approval. While CGPL continues to engage with its five counterparties (Gujarat, Haryana, Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Punjab), CRISIL believes that a change in CGPL's PPA, in line with HPC recommendations, could reduce its under recovery to 15-20p/kWh from the current 60-65p/kWh. This follows the recent update on another Mundra asset; that got the PPA amended and approved by CERC in April 2019.

The rating could be upgraded multiple notches if the HPC recommendation is implemented; thereby substantially reducing the losses.  The outlook could be revised to 'Stable' if the recommendations are not implemented or inordinately delayed.

The rating on the long-term bank facilities (not guaranteed by Tata Power) continues to reflect the strong operational, management, and financial support that CGPL receives from its parent, Tata Power. This strength is partially offset by unfavourable project economics.

The ratings on the other bank facilities (cash credit, working capital loan, buyer's credit and bank guarantee facility) as well as commercial paper continue to reflect an unconditional and irrevocable guarantee from Tata Power. The ratings also factor in the payment structure designed to ensure full payment to the lenders by Tata Power within the timelines stipulated; therefore, the ratings reflect the credit quality of Tata Power. As per the payment structure Tata Power has undertaken to meet CGPL's debt obligations, on or before the due date (for commercial paper) and within 30 days of the due date (for other bank facilities).

Analytical Approach

For arriving at the ratings, CRISIL has applied its parent notch-up framework to factor in the extent of distress support available from the parent, Tata Power. The support factors the strong operational, financial and managerial support provided to CGPL from the parent company.

For the guaranteed issuances, CRISIL has applied its criteria on rating instruments backed by guarantees.

Key Rating Drivers & Detailed Description
Strengths
* Strong operational, management, and financial support from Tata Power

Around 25% of Tata Power's total capital employed has been invested in CGPL. CRISIL believes Tata Power is committed to support CGPL and has infused funds to support debt repayment and any operational cash gaps. Since the commissioning of the plant, Tata Power has infused around Rs 9,000 crore till March 31, 2019, in the form of perpetual securities, equity and inter-company loans. This is in addition to the initial equity commitment of Rs 4,250 crore towards 25% of the estimated project cost. Going forward too, Tata Power intends to reduce debt in CGPL with the proceeds from the sale of non-core assets; since the latter pays highest finance cost among Tata Power subsidiaries.

Tata Power continues to make efforts to improve operating efficiency and minimise under recoveries of CGPL through procurement of coal from various sources. Furthermore, the coal mines in Indonesia are likely to continue to provide a natural hedge, though partly muted due to the domestic market obligation, to CGPL's operations. Currently, working capital facilities worth Rs 2,850 crore, which is about one fourth of total debt, are backed by unconditional and irrevocable corporate guarantee from Tata Power. Tata Power should continue to support CGPL for meeting all the existing debt obligation on time, which continues to be a key rating driver.

Weakness
* Unviable project economics

CGPL's unfavourable project economics is because 55% of the variable charges cannot be escalated. The high cost of imported coal and change in coal pricing regulations by the Indonesian government also contribute to the project's unviability. The under recovery of fuel costs has remained stable in fiscal 2019 at Rs 0.84/kWh in fiscal 2018 but expected to reduce over the medium term as international coal prices soften. Hence, CGPL's cash flow is likely to remain exposed to fluctuations in coal prices, and losses though reduced, may continue in the current unviable tariff structure regime.

With improved visibility of adoption of HPC recommendations, the losses of CGPL could sharply reduce going forward. Timely implementation of the HPC recommendations would be a key rating monitorable.

Nevertheless, CGPL will continue to require support, though lower than prior periods, from Tata Power to meet its debt servicing obligation. Given the company's weak financial risk profile, any change in stance of Tata Power towards supporting CGPL will be a key rating sensitivity factor.
Liquidity

Liquidity remains adequate with its parent support i.e. Tata Power, which has been providing financial support to the company to meet its financial obligation. On a standalone level, CGPL has been incurring operating losses. CRISIL believes that the parent may continue to extend timely, need-based funds to CGPL.

Outlook: Positive (on the bank facilities not guaranteed by Tata Power)
CGPL's outlook is revised to 'Positive' from 'Stable' on improved visibility on the implementation of the HPC recommendations for CGPL. CRISIL believes this could substantially reduce CGPL's losses.

Upside scenarios
* Revision of PPAs and implementation in line with HPC recommendation
* Higher-than-expected reduction in debt
* Increased intent of support from Tata Power, in the form of guarantee to debt

Downside scenarios
* Change in Tata Power's stance towards support to CGPL
* Significant deterioration in operating performance
* Delay or increased likelihood of non-implementation of HPC recommendation

Outlook: Positive (on the bank facilities guaranteed by Tata Power)
The outlook on facilities guaranteed by Tata Power reflects CRISIL's outlook on Tata Power.

About the Company

CGPL, a wholly owned subsidiary of Tata Power, implemented a 4000 megawatt (MW) Ultra Mega Power Plant in Mundra. The project's original cost of Rs 17,000 crore was funded in a debt-to-equity ratio of 75:25. CGPL has PPA tied-up with state power utilities of Gujarat, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Punjab, and Haryana. The fuel (coal) for the plant is sourced from Indonesia. Tata Power has long-term agreements with Indocoal, a coal trading company sourcing coal from the Indonesian coal mining company, PT Kaltim Prima Coal, for supply of 10-12 million tonne per annum of coal, from which CGPL will get its share; Tata Power holds an effective stake of 30% in the coal mining company.

About the guarantor
Tata Power is India's largest integrated private power utility, with installed generation capacity of 10,957 MW (as on March 31, 2019). The company is present across the entire power business spectrum, from generation (thermal, hydro, solar, and wind) to transmission and distribution.
 
During fiscal 2019, Tata Power, on a consolidated basis, had a net profit of Rs 2,437 crore with operating income of Rs 32,196 crore, against Rs 2,609 crore and Rs 29,149 crore, respectively, in fiscal 2018.

Key Financial Indicators
Particulars Unit 2019 2018
Sales Rs crore 7,064 6,271
Profit after tax (PAT) Rs crore -1,654 -1,783
PAT margin % -23.41 -28.43
Adjusted debt/adjusted networth Times 1.83 3.47
Interest coverage Times -0.19 -0.18

Any other information: Not applicable

Note on complexity levels of the rated instrument:
CRISIL complexity levels are assigned to various types of financial instruments. The CRISIL complexity levels are available on www.crisil.com/complexity-levels. Users are advised to refer to the CRISIL complexity levels for instruments that they consider for investment. Users may also call the Customer Service Helpdesk with queries on specific instruments.
Annexure - Details of Instrument(s)
ISIN Type of instrument Date of
allotment
Coupon Maturity
date
Issue Size (Rs crore) Rating Assigned
with Outlook
NA Commercial Paper* NA NA 7-365 days 500 CRISIL A1+(SO)
NA Cash credit and working
capital demand loan*^
NA NA NA 50 CRISIL AA-(SO)/Stable
NA Bank Guarantee*# NA NA NA 250.0 CRISIL A1+(SO)
NA Buyers' Credit* NA NA NA 2250.0 CRISIL A1+(SO)
NA Long Term Loan NA NA Jun-34 3864.2 CRISIL A-/Stable
NA Short Term Loan* NA NA NA 350.0 CRISIL A1+(SO)
*Guaranteed by Tata Power
^ One-way interchangeability from cash credit to letter of credit/buyer's credit
#One-way interchangeability from bank guarantee to Letter of Credit
Annexure - Rating History for last 3 Years
  Current 2019 (History) 2018  2017  2016  Start of 2016
Instrument Type Outstanding Amount Rating Date Rating Date Rating Date Rating Date Rating Rating
Commercial Paper  ST  500.00  CRISIL A1+(SO)      30-08-18  CRISIL A1+(SO)    --    --  -- 
            31-03-18  CRISIL A1+(SO)           
            29-01-18  CRISIL A1+(SO)           
            05-01-18  CRISIL A1+(SO)| Provisional CRISIL A1+(SO)           
Fund-based Bank Facilities  LT/ST  6514.20  CRISIL A-/Positive/ CRISIL AA-(SO)/Positive/ CRISIL A1+(SO)      30-08-18  CRISIL A-/Stable/ CRISIL AA-(SO)/Stable/ CRISIL A1+(SO)  18-05-17  CRISIL A-/Stable/ CRISIL AA-(SO)/Stable/ CRISIL A1+(SO)  26-10-16  CRISIL A-/Negative/ CRISIL AA-(SO)/Stable/ CRISIL A1+(SO)  CRISIL A-/Negative/ CRISIL AA-(SO)/Stable 
            31-03-18  CRISIL A-/Stable/ CRISIL AA-(SO)/Stable/ CRISIL A1+(SO)/ Provisional CRISIL A1+(SO)      18-07-16  CRISIL A-/Negative/ CRISIL AA-(SO)/Stable   
            29-01-18  CRISIL A-/Stable/ CRISIL AA-(SO)/Stable/ CRISIL A1+(SO)      15-06-16  CRISIL A-/Negative/ CRISIL AA-(SO)/Watch Developing   
            05-01-18  CRISIL A-/Stable/ CRISIL AA-(SO)/Stable/ CRISIL A1+(SO)           
Non Fund-based Bank Facilities  LT/ST  250.00  CRISIL A1+(SO)      30-08-18  CRISIL A1+(SO)  18-05-17  CRISIL A1+(SO)  26-10-16  CRISIL A1+(SO)  -- 
            31-03-18  CRISIL A1+(SO)           
            29-01-18  CRISIL A1+(SO)           
            05-01-18  CRISIL A1+(SO)           
All amounts are in Rs.Cr.
Annexure - Details of various bank facilities
Current facilities Previous facilities
Facility Amount (Rs.Crore) Rating Facility Amount (Rs.Crore) Rating
Bank Guarantee*# 250 CRISIL A1+(SO) Bank Guarantee*# 250 CRISIL A1+(SO)
Buyer`s Credit* 2250 CRISIL A1+(SO) Buyer`s Credit* 2250 CRISIL A1+(SO)
Cash Credit & Working Capital demand loan*^ 50 CRISIL AA-(SO)/Positive Cash Credit & Working Capital demand loan*^ 50 CRISIL AA-(SO)/Stable
Long Term Loan 3864.2 CRISIL A-/Positive Long Term Loan 3864.2 CRISIL A-/Stable
Short Term Loan* 350 CRISIL A1+(SO) Short Term Loan* 350 CRISIL A1+(SO)
-- 0 -- Short Term Loan* 300 Withdrawn
Total 6764.2 -- Total 7064.2 --
*Guaranteed by Tata Power
^ One-way interchangeability from cash credit to letter of credit/buyer's credit
#One-way interchangeability from bank guarantee to Letter of Credit
Links to related criteria
CRISILs Approach to Financial Ratios
CRISILs Bank Loan Ratings - process, scale and default recognition
Rating Criteria for Power Generation Utilities
Rating criteria for manufaturing and service sector companies
Criteria for Notching up Stand Alone Ratings of Companies based on Parent Support

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