Key Rating Drivers & Detailed Description
Strengths:
* Expected financial, operational and management support from the parent
Parental support is expected on an ongoing basis as well as in the event of distress. Given majority ownership, shared name, common branding and corporate identity, CRISIL Ratings believes MFL has a strong moral obligation to support MML. The MPG promoters are also on the board of MML. The microfinance business is strategically important and is the second largest, in terms of AUM, for the group, after gold loans. The business has stabilised and has contributed significantly to the parent's profitability over the four years through fiscal 2021 (loss in fiscal 2018 was primarily on account of change in accounting method from IGAAP to IndAS. In addition, MML provides diversity to the product profile.
MML also benefits from the group's strong brand equity through its flagship business of gold loans, particularly in South India. Further, MFL has the financial flexibility to infuse capital into MML to support growth. The promoters and the private equity fund, Creation Investments, infused capital of around Rs 440 crore in fiscals 2016-2019. On account of this capital infusion and steady internal accrual, MML's networth stood at Rs 890 crore as on March 31, 2021.
CRISIL Ratings expects MFL to retain majority ownership in MML, although the latter is looking to raise funds from external investors. The extent of ownership retained by MFL will be a rating sensitivity factor.
* Long track record and experience of the promoters in the microfinance space
The promoters have spent over seven decades in the business of lending, beginning with gold loans, and have over the years forayed into two-wheeler financing, microfinance and housing finance. MPG started its microfinance operations as a separate division of MFL in 2010 and continued it until September 2015. In December 2011, the group acquired a Mumbai-based non-banking financial company (NBFC), Pancharatna Securities Ltd, and renamed it MML. After receiving the NBFC-MFI license from the RBI in March 2015, the microfinance business was shifted to MML from MFL. The second line of management comprises professionals with extensive experience in lending, audit, operations, risk, credit and information technology. Over the years, the group has established a strong reputation and brand in South India, particularly Kerala and Tamil Nadu, and has an appropriate assessment and underwriting methodology, which is being constantly refined.
* Above-average earnings historically, albeit moderation on account of increase in delinquencies in fiscal 2020 and higher provisioning in the current fiscal to combat the pandemic
Historically, the microfinance business has been one of the most profitable businesses for MPG. However, in fiscal 2020, the company reported profit after tax (PAT) of Rs 18 crore, against Rs 201 crore in fiscal 2019. Improved profitability in fiscal 2019 could also partly be attributed to the transitional provisions of IndAS, as the company adopted it for the first time during the year. The decline in profitability in fiscal 2020 was on account of increase in delinquencies, which impacted interest income, as well as a spike in credit costs on account of the company's adoption of an aggressive provisioning policy during the period. Considering the current unprecedented times and the credit profile of borrowers, the company is continuing with higher provisioning (including write-offs) even in the current fiscal. As a result, the company has reported a profit of Rs 7 crore in fiscal 2021.
Credit costs increased to 4.1% in fiscal 2020, compared to 0.7% in fiscal 2019 on account of asset quality pressures in certain geographies, linked to floods and local socio-political issues and the company's aggressive provisioning policy. MML wrote off its portfolio of Rs 114 crore in fiscal 2020 and provided for an additional Rs 151 crore. In fiscal 2021, MML wrote off Rs 111 crore of its portfolio and provided for Rs 20 crore. Given the aggressive provisioning implemented by the company in fiscal 2020, as well as fiscal 2021, profitability is expected to improve in the coming quarters of fiscal 2022. Nevertheless, in the near term, MML’s ability to manage recoveries once normalcy is restored would be a key rating sensitivity factor.
Weakness:
* Moderation in asset quality
After showing improvement in fiscal 2019, wherein 90+ days past due (dpd) improved to 2% as of March 2019 from 3.1% a year earlier, the company’s asset quality metrics deteriorated in fiscal 2020.
The 90+ dpd increased to 5.7% as on February 29, 2020, on account of floods in Kerala and Odisha and political unrest in Karnataka. The company also faced challenges in some districts of Tamil Nadu, such as Madurai and Sivagangai because of a cyclone and socio-political issues in coastal Karnataka and Gujarat. However, the company has consciously curtailed disbursements in the affected branches and regions and has shifted its focus to collections in these areas in an effort to keep a check on further delinquencies.
However, asset quality deteriorated in fiscal 2021 amid the pandemic. The 90+ dpd and 30+ dpd stood at 8.0% and 10.5% respectively, as of March 31, 2021, on account of the impact of Covid-19 induced lockdown on the economy and the income-generating capacity of the borrowers. Management of recoveries once normalcy is restored in business operations and the ability to correct and maintain asset quality on a steady-state basis remains a key monitorable.
* Geographical concentration
Operations are expected to remain concentrated in South India over the medium term. MML's microfinance operations from three states accounted for around 65% of AUM as on March 31, 2021 with Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Karnataka contributing 31%, 25% and 10%, respectively. The company has been expanding operations outside southern India to around 14 other states over the past two years. As a result, per-state concentration has been consistently declining, with the top state accounting for 31% of the total portfolio as on March 31, 2021, down from 53% as on March 31, 2016. However, the ability to replicate similar systems, processes and controls in new geographies will need to be closely monitored. As a result of the natural calamities in fiscal 2018 (cyclones in Tamil Nadu and Odisha and floods in Kerala), the company plans to reduce geographical concentration of portfolio to around 20% per state, over the medium term, in order to reduce the impact of such events on the overall portfolio.
* Susceptibility to regulatory and legislative risks associated with the microfinance sector
The microfinance sector has witnessed two major disruptive events in its life cycle of around 15 years. The first one was the crisis in Andhra Pradesh in 2010 and the second was demonetisation in 2016. In addition, the sector has faced issues in several geographies of varying intensity. Promulgation of the ordinance on MFIs by the Andhra Pradesh government in 2010 demonstrated their vulnerability to regulatory and legislative risks. The ordinance triggered a chain of events that adversely affected the business models of MFIs by impairing their growth, asset quality, profitability and solvency. Similarly, the sector witnessed sizeable delinquencies following demonetisation and subsequent socio-political events. This indicates the fragility of the business model to external risks. Since the business involves lending to the poor and downtrodden sections of the society, MFIs will remain exposed to socially sensitive factors, including charging high interest rates and, consequently, tighter regulations and legislation.