Key Rating Drivers & Detailed Description
Strengths:
- Healthy business risk profile
RCF is the third-largest player in the domestic urea industry, in terms of production capacity, accounting for 10% of the total production. The company has a strong position in Maharashtra, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh. Diversity in revenue streams across the urea, complex fertilisers and industrial chemical products segments, also shields the overall margin from any unfavourable conditions in any particular segment and lends stability to the cash flow position.
- Healthy operating efficiency of the urea production division
Strong operating efficiency is driven by the urea manufacturing plants, operating at healthy utilisation rates, with energy consumed below the prescribed norms and the additional Rs 350 per tonne provided by the government. As pre-specified norms form the basis for reimbursement of feedstock cost to fertiliser companies, lower energy consumption results in better profitability. The Thal and Trombay plants operated at energy levels of 5.85 and 6.51 giga calorie (Gcal)/tonne (against energy norms of 6.20 and 6.50 Gcal/tonne), respectively, in fiscal 2022. Similarly, energy consumption levels have remained comfortable at 5.84 Gcal/tonne and 6.56 Gcal/tonne for the Thal and Trombay plants respectively, during the first quarter of fiscal 2023. Further, complete execution of energy saving projects would further reduce the energy consumed, thus improving the profitability earned from this business segment.
- Improved financial risk profile
Additional subsidies announced by the government over the past two fiscals, has significantly improved the financial risk profile of the company. Adjusted debt to adjusted networth had improved to 0.63 time as on March 31, 2021 (1.53 times as on March 31, 2020). Similarly, adjusted interest coverage and net debt to OPBDIT ratios had improved to 4.24 times in fiscal 2021 (1.58 times in fiscal 2020) and 0.85 times as on March 31, 2021 (16.25 times a year earlier), respectively.
While there has been an unprecedented rise in raw material prices (especially pooled gas) and imported fertiliser rates, the additional subsidies (Rs 60,593 crore added to initial allocation of Rs 79,530 crore) announced by the government, has curbed the rise in subsidy arrears for fiscal 2022.
Adjusted debt to adjusted networth has marginally increased to 0.74 time as on March 31, 2022. Also, with RCF being appointed as a canalising agency to facilitate urea imports on behalf of the Government, its requirement for funding limits has increased, considering the rise in imported urea prices.
To address these hikes in rates, the government has been extending the required funding support, through announcement of additional subsidies. While initially a subsidy payout of Rs 105,222 crore was budgeted for fiscal 2023, it has approved an additional payout of Rs. 110,000 crores in May 2022. This is expected to keep the working capital position steady and not let any material built-up in the subsidy receivables in fiscal 2023. However, a timely disbursement of this additional subsidy which would comfort RCF’s overall financial position, would remain a key rating monitorable.
Also, while the company would continue to undertake capital expenditure (capex) for periodic efficiency along with its committed investment towards its joint venture, any major debt-funded capex or investment that constrains the capital structure, would be a key rating sensitivity factor.
Weaknesses:
- Cyclicality in the industrial products and complex fertiliser business
The industrial chemicals business is highly commoditised and cyclical. Thus, players are exposed to fluctuation in international prices and the import duty structure for the key product, methanol. While profitability from this segment has been improving since fiscal 2021, its sustenance is to be seen.
Profitability in the complex fertiliser business remains susceptible to availability and prices of key raw materials in the international market. The current global shortage, which has led to a spike in prices, could hurt the margin in the medium term.
Profitability in the industrial chemicals and complex fertiliser businesses will remain constrained by intense competition from cheaper imports and availability of raw material in the international market, respectively.
- Exposure to regulatory risks in the fertiliser industry
Given the strong thrust of the government on self-sufficiency in food grain production, the fertiliser industry is strategic but highly controlled. Hence, players are susceptible to regulatory changes. The government is focused on reducing subsidy without increasing prices, by urging companies to adopt more efficient methods for urea production. Accordingly, the government has tightened energy consumption norms, thereby impacting profit of urea players, unless they improve energy efficiency. The revised energy norms for the Thal and Trombay plants of RCF became applicable from April 1, 2018, and October 1, 2020, respectively. Impact of these norms is partially mitigated by the additional fixed cost of Rs 350 per tonne allowed for all urea manufacturers.
Fertiliser companies are also susceptible to delays in subsidy payments from the government, leading to high reliance on working capital loans. Any deferment in the disbursement of subsidy on account of under-budgeting and any change in the regulatory scenario are key rating sensitivity factors.