Rating Rationale
March 27, 2020 | Mumbai
SpiceJet Limited
Long-term rating downgraded to 'CRISIL B/Negative'; short-term rating reaffirmed
 
Rating Action
Total Bank Loan Facilities Rated Rs.1445 Crore
Long Term Rating CRISIL B/Negative (Downgraded from 'CRISIL BB-/Positive')
Short Term Rating CRISIL A4 (Reaffirmed)
1 crore = 10 million
Refer to annexure for Details of Instruments & Bank Facilities
Detailed Rationale

CRISIL has downgraded its rating on the long-term bank facility of SpiceJet Limited (SpiceJet) to 'CRISIL B/Negative' from 'CRISIL BB-/Positive' and reaffirmed its 'CRISIL A4' rating on the short-term facilities.
 
The rating action reflects CRISIL's expectation of significant deterioration in SpiceJet's business risk profile on account of discontinuation of international operations till April 30, 2020 and suspension of domestic flights till March 31, 2020. Travel bans, visa cancellations and the increasing scare around the spread of the Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19) had already impacted passenger traffic across airlines during March 2020. If the closure prolonged it may have further impact on credit profile of airline operators, including SpiceJet.
 
Against a modest revenue expectation, the company will have to continue to incur fixed costs such as lease rentals and workforce costs. This will result in operating losses and a weakening of the financial risk profile. Cancellations of existing travel plans because of the Covid-19 scare will further put pressure on liquidity.
 
The outlook revision reflects the expectation of further deterioration in SpiceJet's business risk profile amid the Covid-19 pandemic. SpiceJet is taking steps to conserve cash such as deferring lease payments and rationalisation of costs which need to be monitored. Moreover, aviation turbine fuel (ATF) prices have already corrected by 20% during March 2020 and there could be further correction given significant decline in global crude prices. This should help contain some losses and can benefit operating margins once operations normalize. Furthermore, any steps undertaken by the government to support liquidity will remain a key monitorable. In case the pandemic worsens, there could be further weakening of its financial risk profile.
 
The ratings reflect high operating leverage and intense competition, and exposure to volatility in ATF prices and foreign exchange (forex) rates. These weaknesses are partially offset by SpiceJet's established market position.

Analytical Approach

For arriving at the ratings, CRISIL has combined the business and financial risk profiles of SpiceJet and its subsidiaries, including SpiceJet Merchandise Pvt Ltd and SpiceJet Technic Pvt Ltd. This is because all these companies, collectively referred to as SpiceJet, are in the same line of business and under a common management.
 
CRISIL has added the discounted value of future non-cancellable lease payments to arrive at adjusted debt, while such lease payments are added back to the operating profit to arrive at earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, amortisation, and rentals (EBITDAR). The debt protection metrics, including leverage and interest coverage ratios, are calculated using adjusted debt and EBITDAR.

Please refer Annexure - List of Entities Consolidated, which captures the list of entities considered and their analytical treatment of consolidation.

Key Rating Drivers & Detailed Description
Weaknesses
* High operating leverage and intense competition
More than 50% of costs of an airline are fixed in nature. Therefore, any disruption of operations or sudden rise in operating costs could have a significant impact on profitability. Moreover, the domestic airline industry remains highly competitive, underpinned by frequent entry of new players and significant fleet addition by existing ones. During fiscal 2015, the industry saw the launch of services by Vistara and Air Asia India, followed by the addition of new players such as Air Carnival, Air Costa, Air Pegasus, TruJet, and Zoom Air over the 12 months through March 2018. High competitive intensity significantly constrains the ability of airlines to increase yields. Therefore, profitability will remain exposed to any movement in external factors.
 
* Exposure to movement in ATF price, passenger load factor (PLF), and forex rates
ATF accounts for 35-40% of the total operating costs of industry players. Furthermore, ATF price is directly linked to global crude prices and, therefore, remains volatile. Moreover, industry players have limited capability to pass on the increase to passengers because of intense competition and the likely adverse impact on PLFs. While significant decline in ATF prices (declined 20% in March 2020) will partially cushion against any losses that are incurred on account of high fixed costs, however, any benefit to the operating margins after normal operations are resumed due to benign ATF prices will have to be monitored.
 
Operations are also sensitive to forex fluctuations as lease rentals and maintenance costs, which account for 35-40% of the operating costs, are denominated in USD. The ability to pass on any large variation in operating costs will remain constrained on account of competitive intensity in the sector.
 
Strengths
* Established market position
The domestic market share was 15.3% during February 2020, as against 13.7% a year ago as Jet Airways discontinued operations. The market position benefitted from availability of additional aircraft from Jet Airways despite grounding of 13 of its own Boeing 737 Max aircraft after security concerns in April 2019. Furthermore, the company has been allotted slots vacated by Jet Airways, largely on metro and Tier-I routes, which complements the company's already strong presence in routes connecting Tier-II and -III cities.
 
SpiceJet has continuously reported PLF above 90% during the eight months through February 2020, driven by efficient fleet utilisation. Furthermore, the company has put in concerted efforts in building a strong brand by focusing on on-time performance and minimal cancellations. Its ability to maintain healthy market share and strong operating metrics upon resumption of normal services will remain a key monitorable.
Liquidity Stretched

Cash accrual was negative in fiscal 2019, and is expected to remain negative during fiscal 2020. Moreover, because of cancellations amid the Covid-19 pandemic, the company's liquidity could be further impacted. CRISIL will continue to closely monitor the liquidity profile and debt repayment of the company.

Outlook: Negative

CRISIL believes that SpiceJet's business risk profile may deteriorate with continued disruption in its operations if the pandemic worsens.  
 
Rating Sensitivity Factors
Upward Factor
*Better operating profit leading to steady improvement in liquidity
*Support provided by the government to the industry
*Sustained improvement in market position with capacity addition, while maintaining PLF above 90%
 
Downward Factor
*Continued disruption of operations leading to sustained operating losses
*Pressure on profitability on account of increase in ATF price, competitive intensity, reduction in PLFs, or forex rate fluctuations.

About the Company

SpiceJet is currently promoted by Mr Ajay Singh who held above 60% stake in the company as on June 30, 2018. It is a low-cost carrier, and the fourth-largest airline in India by number of domestic passengers carried.
 
Set up as an air taxi provider in 1984, it diversified into providing domestic aviation services in 1993, and was renamed Modiluft Ltd in 1994.  The company got its current name in 2005, when the services were re-launched after being shut down in 1996. SpiceJet operated its first flight in May 2005. Mr Kalanidhi Maran acquired a controlling stake in SpiceJet in June 2010, through the Sun group. The stake was sold back to Mr Ajay Singh in January 2015. The airline operates a fleet of Boeing 737 and Bombardier Dash aircraft.

Key Financial Indicators (Standalone)
As on/for the period ended March 31 Unit 2019 2018
Revenue Rs crore 9129 7811
Profit After Tax (PAT) Rs crore -316 567
PAT Margin % -3.5 7.3
Adjusted debt/adjusted networth Times NM NM
Interest coverage Times -0.05 5.21

Any other information: Not applicable

Note on complexity levels of the rated instrument:
CRISIL complexity levels are assigned to various types of financial instruments. The CRISIL complexity levels are available on www.crisil.com/complexity-levels. Users are advised to refer to the CRISIL complexity levels for instruments that they consider for investment. Users may also call the Customer Service Helpdesk with queries on specific instruments.
Annexure - Details of Instrument(s)
ISIN Name of instrument Date of allotment Coupon rate (%) Maturity date Issue size (Rs.Cr) Rating assigned with outlook
NA Term Loan NA NA 13-Mar-19 250 CRISIL B/Negative
NA Term Loan NA NA 21-May-20 75 CRISIL B/Negative
NA Packing Credit in Foreign Currency NA NA NA 350 CRISIL A4
NA Letter of Credit^ NA NA NA 770 CRISIL A4
^Bank guarantee is a sub limit
 
Annexure - List of Entities Consolidated
Names of entities consolidated Extent of consolidation Rationale for consolidation
SpiceJet Merchandise Pvt Ltd Fully consolidated Common line of business
SpiceJet Technic Pvt Ltd. Fully consolidated Common line of business
Annexure - Rating History for last 3 Years
  Current 2020 (History) 2019  2018  2017  Start of 2017
Instrument Type Outstanding Amount Rating Date Rating Date Rating Date Rating Date Rating Rating
Fund-based Bank Facilities  LT/ST  675.00  CRISIL B/Negative/ CRISIL A4      19-07-19  CRISIL BB-/Positive/ CRISIL A4  09-10-18  CRISIL BB-/Negative/ CRISIL A4    --  -- 
                07-08-18  CRISIL BBB/Stable/ CRISIL A3+       
                03-05-18  CRISIL BBB/Stable       
Non Fund-based Bank Facilities  LT/ST  770.00  CRISIL A4      19-07-19  CRISIL A4  09-10-18  CRISIL A4    --  -- 
                07-08-18  CRISIL A3+       
All amounts are in Rs.Cr.
Annexure - Details of various bank facilities
Current facilities Previous facilities
Facility Amount (Rs.Crore) Rating Facility Amount (Rs.Crore) Rating
Letter of Credit^ 770 CRISIL A4 Letter of Credit^ 770 CRISIL A4
Packing Credit in Foreign Currency 350 CRISIL A4 Packing Credit in Foreign Currency 350 CRISIL A4
Term Loan 325 CRISIL B/Negative Term Loan 325 CRISIL BB-/Positive
Total 1445 -- Total 1445 --
^Bank guarantee is a sub limit
Links to related criteria
CRISILs Approach to Financial Ratios
CRISILs Bank Loan Ratings - process, scale and default recognition
Rating criteria for manufaturing and service sector companies
CRISILs Approach to Recognising Default
CRISILs Criteria for Consolidation
The Rating Process
Understanding CRISILs Ratings and Rating Scales

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