Key Rating Drivers & Detailed Description
Strengths:
- Expectation of strong support from the government
The ratings continue to factor in expectation of strong government support. This is because the central government is the majority shareholder in public sector banks (PSBs) and the guardian of India's financial system. Stability of the banking sector is of prime importance to the government, given its criticality to the economy, strong public perception of sovereign backing for PSBs, and severe implications of any PSB failure, in terms of political fallout, systemic stability and investor confidence. The majority ownership creates a moral obligation on the government to support PSBs, including Union Bank. Any material change in shareholding by GoI and/or privatisation of the bank in line with Finance Minister’s announcement in the recent budget for privatisation of two PSBs will be a key rating sensitivity factor.
As a part of the Indradhanush framework, the government had pledged to infuse at least Rs 70,000 crore in PSBs over fiscals 2015 to 2019, of which Rs 25,000 crore each was infused in fiscals 2016 and 2017. In October 2017, the government outlined a recapitalisation package of Rs 2.11 lakh crore over fiscals 2018 and 2019. Union Bank, Andhra Bank and Corporation Bank together received Rs 8,601 crore in fiscal 2018 and Rs 21,028 crore in fiscal 2019 under this package. Also, the government allocated Rs 70,000 crore in fiscal 2020, of which Rs 11,768 crore was received.
The bank also has flexibility to raise additional equity from the market, with the central government stake at 83.5% as on June 30, 2021. The bank has raised Rs 1,705 crore of Tier 1 and Rs 2,000 crore of Tier 2 bonds in the fiscal 2021 and Rs 2000 crore of Tier II bonds in fiscal 2022 till now. The bank has also completed its QIP of Rs 1447 crore in May 2021. The bank’s CET-1 ratio, Tier-I CAR and overall CAR stood at 9.8%, 11.1% and 13.3%, respectively, as on June 30, 2021 (9.1%, 10.4% and 12.6% as on March 31, 2021).
- Sizeable scale of operations, backed by extensive branch network
Union Bank is among the larger PSBs with share in deposits and advances in the domestic banking system at ~6% each as on June 30, 2021. The bank has 45% of its total advances in the form of loans to corporates followed by retail (20%), micro, small and medium enterprises (17%) and agriculture (18%). Within retail, housing loans constituted almost 53% of the loan book.
The bank benefits from its sizeable branch network of more than 9,300 as on June 30, 2021, and wide reach in rural and semi-urban areas, which facilitates access to low-cost, stable resource base. As on June 30, 2021, current account and savings account (CASA) deposits-to-total deposit ratio was 36.4% (33.3% as on June 30, 2020). While this is adequate, it is lower than that for some of the other large banks. Union Bank is likely to maintain its market share and pan-India presence over the medium term.
Weaknesses:
The bank’s asset quality, with reported gross NPAs of 13.6% as on June 30, 2021 (13.7% as on March 31, 2021 and 14.6% as on March 31, 2020) remains modest. Around 49% of the NPAs are contributed by large corporates, which have gross NPAs of around 14.7% as on June 30, 2021 (16.2% as on March 31, 2021). The same has come down from 19.5% as on March 31, 2020 – largely on account of write-offs. As on June 30, 2021, retail, agriculture and micro-and-small segments had gross NPAs of around 5%, 13% and 21%, respectively. Slippages for the bank improved in fiscal 2021 at 2.9% (Rs 17443 crore) as against 4.1% (Rs 23,580 crore) and 4.5% (Rs 25,135 crore) witnessed in fiscal 2020 and fiscal 2019, respectively. However, the same increased to 4.8% (annualised; Rs 7049 crore) of opening net advances for the quarter ended June 30, 2021 – driven the impact of second wave of Covid-19. MSME segment accounted for 45% of the slippages followed by agriculture and corporate segment at 20% each. Furthermore, the bank’s standard restructured accounts were at 2.90% of advances as on June 30, 2021, which is expected to marginally increase by ~20-30 basis till September 30, 2021
Asset quality of the bank, as well as performance of the restructured accounts and ability of the management to contain slippages to NPAs and improve recoveries will remain key monitorables in the near to medium term.
- Modest, albeit improving, earnings profile
Profitability, for the last few years, had been constrained primarily by high provisioning costs taken by the bank. However, the profitability of the bank improved in fiscal 2021 with profit of Rs 2905 crore with return on assets (RoA) of 0.3% as against an estimated loss of 6,614 crore (with a negative return on assets RoA of 0.7%) for the amalgamated bank for fiscal 2020. The improvement was driven by improvement in credit costs, which improved to 1.6% (Rs 16860 crore) of average assets in fiscal 2021 as against an estimated 2.5% (Rs 24317 crore) in fiscal 2020. Further, supported by cost rationalisation measures, operating expenses improved to 1.6% of average assets for fiscal 2021, from 1.8% in fiscal 2020.
For the quarter ended June 30, 2021, the bank reported a PAT of Rs 1181 crore with an RoA of 0.4%. Credit costs of the bank moderated to 1.3% (annualised; Rs 3524 crore) of average assets for the quarter ended June 30, 2021. PCR (excluding the technical write-offs) of the bank continues to remain high at around 68.7% as on June 30, 2021 (69.6% as on March 31, 2021).
Nevertheless, improvement and sustainability of the profitability will remain a key rating sensitivity factor.