Summary

India, the second-largest food producer in the world, appears poised for another good year of production as several tailwinds converge.

Sowing for kharif crop, which is entering its last leg, gathered pace in August helped by the monsoon’s progress, and had marginally surpassed last year's levels as of September 7, 2018.

However, subdued agriculture commodity prices remain a concern for farmers.

For crop marketed between January and December 2017, the falling market prices of key MSP-linked crops had led to a 12% drop in average per-hectare profitability. The dip steepened to 25% on-year for key rabi crops marketed in 2018 - wheat, gram, and rapeseed and mustard.

The recent hike in MSPs on 14 kharif crops to at least 1.5 times the cost of production was a major step. Nine crops witnessed a hike of more than 15% and the weighted average increase was ~13%. Yet, it has barely enthused mandi prices.

Therefore, what’s moot is, will the raft of positives lift farm incomes in 2018?

The talking points include:

• How have rains this year fared in terms of distribution
  
• How crop profitability and mandi prices are trending for major crops
  
• How farm profitability will vary by state
  
• The impact of government measures on farm incomes
  

Dial in to CRISIL Research's webinar for insights. The presentation will be followed by a panel discussion which will be moderated by DK Joshi, Chief Economist, CRISIL and a Q&A session.