Summary

Fiscal 2019 was a year of recovery after demonetisation and the implementation of Good and Services Tax (GST). Government-led investment was the big mover behind the 7.2% GDP growth estimated, while private consumption continued to disappoint.

India did not escape the global tailspin in equities, and the selloff in emerging market bonds hurt the currencies of countries that run a current account deficit, including ours. The rupee slid from 65 to 74 per dollar, while the yield on the benchmark 10-year government bond was under the pump for most months. But there was good news on the inflation front as it stayed below 4% average for the second straight fiscal.

So what’s in store in fiscal 2020? 

To crystal gaze, CRISIL is holding a webinar, where the key topics of discussion will be:

• Will private consumption take charge to lift growth and will the surge in investment sustain?
• Does the monsoon this time pose a threat after a hat-trick of normal spells?
• Given the weak global economy and tariff wars, can India lean on anything but domestic factors?
• How will most macros – the current account deficit and rupee, 10- year bond yield and inflation take shape amid this?
• How is monetary and fiscal policy likely to react?

The webinar will include a presentation followed by a Q&A session.