• Report
  • CRISIL Research
  • Economy Research
  • GDP Growth
  • Inflation
  • India Outlook
January 23, 2019

India outlook FY20

India’s growth outlook for fiscal 2020 will essentially have domestic drivers. The key drivers are expected to be private consumption and investment. With weak global environment, India will have to lean on domestic factors. With the government pursuing a fiscal consolidation path, the pickup in growth is expected to be only gradual. A change in the growth mix is on cards, with private sector likely to take over the baton from the government.

 

So unlike fiscal 2019, the push will have to come from private consumption and investments, as the government’s hands are tied in the fiscal sense.

 

India outlook, a year from here

 

 

FY18

FY19F

FY20F

GDP (y-o-y %)

6.7

7.2*

7.3

CPI inflation (%, average)

3.6

3.7

4.5

10 year G-sec yield (%, March)

7.6

7.7

7.5

Current account deficit (% of GDP)

1.9

2.6

2.4

Rs per $ (March)

65.0

71.0

72.0

 

Note: *advance estimates by CSO
Source: CSO, RBI, CRISIL