Agriculture and allied activities could be the Indian economy’s only bright spot in a year when the Covid-19 pandemic has slammed the brakes on industry and services.

Overall, CRISIL expects a real agricultural growth of 2.5% in fiscal 2021, with risks tilted to the downside due to a hit to horticulture and any likely impact of locust attacks.

The effects of the pandemic on the sector thus far have, however, been varied. That’s because agriculture and allied activities is not a homogeneous group, but an umbrella of activities, each having its own set of dynamics.

For instance, while the share of crops in the agriculture sector’s gross value added (GVA) is the largest, it is also the most volatile in terms of performance. It is the only sector that showed negative performance during some years in the past decade.

Livestock, though only half the size of crops, plays a crucial role in driving the agricultural GVA growth. Its role attains prominence particularly in years when crops takes a hit.

Further, crops can be classified into food grains and horticulture.

Horticulture production has exceeded that of food grains since crop year 2012-13. In crop year 2019-20, horticulture production is estimated at 313.35 metric tonne (MT), compared with 291.95 MT for food grains. According to estimates of the agriculture ministry, horticulture’s share in the GVA of agriculture and allied activities is ~30%, similar to that of food grains.