From south-west to north-east, monsoons have pushed vegetables into an unsavoury stew.

First came the erratic and often copious summer spells that delayed arrivals at mandis and lit up prices.

Then the north-east variant rained pain.

With cumulative rainfall between October 1 and November 24 as much as 47% above normal, vegetable arrivals at mandis are once again severely curtailed, and once again prices are aflame.

Tomato prices may stay elevated for two more months

For instance, take tomato, which accounts for 10% of the total vegetable production in India. With standing crops damaged by excess rains in Karnataka (105% above normal), Andhra Pradesh (40% above normal) and Maharashtra (22% above normal), which are key suppliers of tomato during October-December, supply is down materially.

Our on-ground interactions indicate that the situation is so grim in Karnataka that tomatoes are being sent from Nashik in Maharashtra.

Not surprisingly, prices of tomatoes have increased 142% on-year as on November 25 and are expected to remain elevated for the next 45-50 days till the harvest from Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan reach markets across the country beginning January.

The prices are expected to decline by ~30% from the current high levels of around Rs 47 per Kg in the coming 2 to 3 months.