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March 19, 2024

CRISIL Economy First Cut: Exports growth at a 20-month high

Macroeconomics | First cut

Data highlights

 

  • Exports of major items such as drugs and pharmaceuticals (22.2% on-year in February vs 6.8% in January), engineering goods (15.9% vs 4.2%), organic and inorganic chemicals (33% vs 0.3%) and readymade garments (4.9% vs -3.5%) displayed robust growth, while petroleum products (5.1% vs 6.6%) showed a slight slowdown. Meanwhile, exports of gems and jewellery (-11.3% vs -1.3%) remained in the red
  • Interestingly, exports of labour-intensive sectors such as carpets (14.6% v 9.4%), cotton, yarn, fabrics, made-ups, handloom products and others (17.1% v 2.5%), handicrafts (87% v -16.6%) improved further compared with the previous month. Ceramic products and glassware (9.8% v -3.5%), plastic and linoleum (22.1% v 9.6%) and readymade garments (4.9% v -3.5%) also exhibited positive growth
  • Agricultural exports have gained momentum, driven by fruits and vegetables (12.7% v 10.6%), oil seeds (37.7% v 11.3%), rice (1.8% v -3.3%), spices (14.85% v 20.5%) and tobacco (58.2% v 47.3%). However, exports of cashew (-13.6% v -20.8%) and oil meals (-24.6% v 14.7%) slowed
  • Oil imports turned positive, increasing 0.1% on-year to $16.89 billion in February from $15.53 billion in January in line with an increase in Brent crude oil prices to $83.8 per barrel from $80.2 per barrel the previous month
  • Imports of gold (133.8% v 173.6%) and silver (13234.4% v 323.5%) increased on-year. While growth in silver imports was supported by a significantly low base, the same cannot be said about gold, which faced an unfavourable base. Pearl, precious and semi-precious stones showed weak growth (-13.4% v 6.2%)
  • Core imports (non-oil and non-gold) rose 5.2% on-year compared with a 2.3% decline in January
  • Import growth of industrial products such as iron and steel (9.5% v -7.5%) and machine tools (24.9% v 0.1%) was positive and strong. Coal, coke and briquittes (2.1% v 21.2%) saw positive, but slower growth compared with the previous month