IMD forecasts above-normal rains in 2024. What must we watch out for?

The forecast

Spell to douse the scorching summer: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicted above-normal rainfall for the 2024 southwest monsoon season that spans June to September. Rainfall is forecast at 106% of its long period average (or LPA), with a model error of ±5% (chart 1 compares past forecasts with actuals).

While El Niño conditions are moderate, they are expected to ease to neutral in the coming months; La Nina conditions are expected to develop during the second half of the monsoon season. La Nina following in El Niño’s footsteps generally favours the Indian monsoon, as per the past 72 years’ data studied by the IMD. Of the nine times this phenomenon occurred during these years, rains were normal in two, above normal in two and excess in five years.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (sometimes referred to as the Indian El Niño) is currently neutral; it is likely to turn positive in the second half of the monsoon season. This is another factor that is likely to benefit the Indian monsoon.

Regional and temporal distribution: For now, in its first long range forecast (LRF), the IMD has predicted a high likelihood of below-average rainfall in some areas of east and north-east India. More rigorous information on the date of monsoon onset and its special and temporal distribution will be available in forecasts released in May.

Rainfall distribution will be watched closely this year. Uneven distribution over regions and time in the past fiscal, with other weather disturbances, had hurt agriculture output and incomes while keeping food inflation persistently high. Food inflation climbed to 7.5% on-year in fiscal 2024 from an already high 6.6%; agricultural gross value added (GVA) dropped to 0.7% from 4.7%. Areas and/or crops that face a monsoon shock (if at all) for the second straight year could suffer more than others.