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May 16, 2024

CRISIL Economy First Cut: Imports widen trade deficit

Macroeconomics | First cut

Exports stable, imports surge

 

India’s exports in April recorded positive growth in the face of the ongoing disruptions in global trade routes and uneven global growth. Imports, meanwhile, saw steeper growth, leading to a wider trade deficit.

 

Merchandise exports grew 1.1% on-year ($34.99 bn v $34.62 bn in April last year), after registering a mild contraction (-0.7%) previous month. Merchandise imports grew 10.3% on-year to $54.09 bn from $49.06 bn in April last year.

Merchandise imports surge in April

 

Lower gems and jewellery shipments were a drag on the exports growth. Meanwhile, core exports stayed positive but slowed to 1.3% on-year compared with 9.1% in March.

 

High growth in merchandise imports was a result of surge in both oil and gems & jewellery imports while core import growth remained softer. Notably, during the month prices of crude oil and gold rose sharply — both, on-year and on-month.

 

Oil prices rose to $90.1/bbl from $85.4/bbl in March, contributing to the imports growth. Meanwhile, gold prices rose to $2,331/troy oz from $2,158/troy oz. Gold imports doubled to $3.1 bn from $1.5 bn last month.

 

Merchandise trade deficit, therefore, widened to $19.1 billion from $15.6 billion in March and $14.4 billion in April last year.

 

In March, India’s services exports declined 1.4% on-year1, while imports softened to 2.1%. As a result, the services trade surplus was largely stable at $13.42 billion as against $13.48 billion a year ago. Overall, services exports have been growing well and the country is now the fourth largest exporter of digitally delivered services, after the US, UK and Ireland. The country now accounts for more than a fifth of international trade in services. In 2023, its digitally delivered services exports stood at $257 billion, up 17% on-year (Global Trade Outlook, WTO).