Merchandise exports

India’s merchandise exports seem to have weathered the headwinds quite well so far amid heightened geopolitical tensions that have rendered the global environment highly uncertain.

In fiscal 2024, India’s merchandise exports clocked $437.1 billion, down a mere 3.1% from $451.1 billion in fiscal 2023, despite all the challenges.

The performance was largely in sync with global trade. According to latest data from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, global merchandise exports declined 4.6% in 2023, similar to India’s 4.7% decline during the period, thereby keeping India’s share in world exports stable at 1.8%. India’s export performance was, in fact, better than developing Asia as a whole, which saw merchandise exports decline a higher 6.8% in 2023.

Besides, even though total merchandise exports recorded a marginal decline for fiscal 2024, monthly data suggests export growth started improving post June 2023 (Chart 1).

On-year export growth entered the positive zone in August 2023 for the first time in many months and has since displayed healthy momentum. After an average 13.1% on-year contraction during April-July 2023, exports logged 2.2% growth over August 2023-March 2024.Indeed, export growth in the last quarter of fiscal 2024 was faster at 4.5%.