Energy security and its affordability is vital for the growth and development of any economy.

This is particularly true of low-income nations that need rapid growth to improve living standards.

At the other side of this reality is climate change, which has begun manifesting in rising incidents of heat waves, changing rainfall patterns and natural disasters.

South Asia has been identified as highly vulnerable to climate change. According to an S&P Global study (2022), South Asia is likely to face water stress and extreme heat in the moderate emissions scenario. About 15% of annual gross domestic product (GDP) could be at risk by 2050.

This makes transition towards greener energy sources an imperative even as growth intensifies.

To be sure, India is the fifth largest economy in the world, but it ranks 143 in per capita terms. Hence, its need to grow fast cannot be over-emphasized.

We expect India to grow at 6.7% per year till decade-end; this is bound to raise the carbon footprint since fossil fuels remain the key component of energy supply. The country is also attempting to change its economic composition in favour of industry and infrastructure, which are more carbon-intensive than services.

Thus, India's ability to manage the trade-off between high growth/energy security and energy transition is being tested, the success of which depends on the deftness of policy makers.

The talk of the north-south wedge on climate and energy transition is apposite here.

The distinction is based more on an economy’s stage of development than on geographical demarcation. The global north represents the high per capita income economies (mirroring high per capita energy consumption/emissions) and south the lower income ones.

The global south has been asking for a 'just transition' that considers its development needs and financial ability to green the growth process.

Interestingly, in the aftermath of geopolitical uncertainties, energy security and affordability issues cropped up across the world, particularly in Europe. And now, with the increasing use of artificial intelligence, fast-paced data center creation and crypto mining, energy demand in the United States is projected to outpace current projections. This has brought energy supply/security issues to the forefront even in advanced countries.

Breakthroughs in technology, particularly in carbon capture and long-term storage, and green hydrogen can change the energy transition game. But fingers crossed on when that will play out.

What looks certain is that that energy transition path is likely to be non-linear, with each country following its own path dictated by its economic realities.

Amid all this, India is chalking out its own energy transition trajectory.

Given its stage of development and need to grow fast, it has committed to net zero by 2070, and not by 2050, which many advanced countries have signed up to. Urgent efforts are needed to adapt to climate change and minimise the risks thereof.