Passenger traffic at aiports to plummet to fiscal 2009-2010 levels in the current Covid-19 impacted fiscal
(All calculations include scheduled and unscheduled traffic. CRISIL Research has included unscheduled passenger traffic viz passengers from charter flights, Vande Bharat Mission and the Air Bubble arrangements in calculations for International passengers. Since scheduled international passenger traffic continues to be suspended, we will not be able to provide a split between scheduled and unscheduled traffic yet.)
CRISIL Research expects airport passenger traffic to drop 65-70% on year in fiscal 2021 to 110-120 million, similar to fiscal 2009-2010 levels, on account of i) Suspension of domestic air services for 2 months from 25th march 2020 to 24th May 2020 and International services from 23rd March 2020 onwards. ii) Reduced demand for air travel post resumption of air services as leisure and business travel is avoided in the near term with only essential travel and some portion of VFR tarffic seen due to the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic. iii) Suspension of scheduled International services with International flights restricted to Vande Bharat Flights and the Air bubble flights iv) Cap on domestic flight capacity imposed by the Ministry of Civil aviation v) Higher case oads in some states leading to imposition of carrying negative RT-PCR tests negatively impacting traffic demand.
Passenger traffic in Fiscal 2022 is projected to record a smart recovery of 1.2-1.3x to 260-280 million, similar to fiscal 2017 levels. The recovery will be led by increasing confidence in air travel post the Covid-19 pandemic and the lower base effect.
In the long term, passenger throughput at Indian Airports in fiscal 2025 is seen at 450-480 million. as Indian aviation gets back to pre-pandemic double digit growth rates led by low travel density per capita, shift from rail travel and increasing connectivity Passenger traffic to plummet to fiscal 2009-2010 levels
