India’s second wave –a healthcare and an economic challenge
Base GDP growth forecast for fiscal 2022 at 11%, with risk firmly tilted downwards
Scenario 1 –Moderate downside: GDP growth drops to 9.8%, assuming second wave peaks by May-end
Scenario 2 –Severe downside: GDP growth drops to 8.2%, assuming second wave peaks by June-end
Lockdowns / restrictions less restrictive for economic activity, but increasing in number
Caseloads spreading to rural areas where healthcare infrastructure is weak
High frequency indicators show softening
Global waves suggest impact on manufacturing activity is less devastating as vaccination rollout gathers pace and people ‘learn to live with the virus’;
External demand to support India’s merchandise exports
India Inc’s revenue growth projected at 15% for fiscal 2022 on a low base of two years in base case and moderate scenario; in alternate severe scenario, pegged at 10-12%
Rising costs could pose headwinds to companies as they recover in specific sectors
