India’s Covid-19 affliction curve has turned for the first time since the second wave began, with daily cases in the week ended May 16 falling 15% sequentially. The major affected states such as Maharashtra, Karnataka, Delhi and Uttar Pradesh have reported fewer new infections.

Nationally, new cases, after touching a high of 4.14 lakh on May 6, has now declined to average ~3.6 lakh as on May 16, offering some respite. Testing, though, has not dipped (in fact, it increased by a moderate 4% in this week when cases declined). However, it’s too early to call a peak. The recovery rate has improved to 84.8% as of May 16 from 82.2% on May 9.

While vaccination was opened to all adults two weeks back to battle the fierce second wave, vaccine availability has become a national bottleneck. Consequently, some states have announced a temporary halt to their vaccination drive for the 18-44 age group and prioritised those in the 45+ bracket, especially the second doses. Daily vaccinations have reduced to ~1,455 per million people (week ended May 16), from 1,770 at the end of April. The world average is 2,962 per million.

Meantime, high-frequency indicators of the economy have continued to soften. Mobility indicators, in particular, have fallen to June 2020 levels.