Helping an EU Bank Holding Company reduce losses and False Positives in Transaction Fraud
Client: EU Bank Holding Company
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Objective
CRISL was approached by a large EU-based bank holding company that was plagued by check credit losses. Fraudsters were using fictitious checks and withdrawing funds, and the blocking of funds to control withdrawals was impacting genuine customers. High volumes made manual operations infeasible.
The objective of the engagement was to reduce losses and minimize impact on other customers by designing and implementing a new system for transaction fraud monitoring.
CRISIL’s Solution
The CRISIL team devised a new methodology that ranks credit entries based on transactional, behavioral and demographical parameters, differentiating high-risk entries from low-risk ones.
Model Implementation
Predictors were taken from pool of transaction, demographic and behavioral variables.
Predictors were selected based on Information Value (IV) and Variance Inflation Factor (VIF).
Predictors having low IV or displaying multicollinearity were removed.
Weight of evidence and stepwise logistic regression were used to build the model.
Scores were assigned based on the estimates from the regression model.
Model Performance
Area under the curve (ROC) was 92%, indicating good predictive power.
GINI coefficient was 84% as compared to 70% in the previous model.
Stability of the new model was not affected as shown in the PSI (.02) and CSI.
Client Impact
False positive rates improved from 1 in 9 frauds to 1 in 16 frauds.
Unpaid capture rates increased by 50%.
Operational overheads reduced.
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